Consumer Confidence Rising Among South Africans

South African consumer confidence reached its highest level of 2025, driven largely by middle-income earners (R5,000–R20,000 per month), according to the latest FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

Overall Consumer Confidence

• The CCI rose to -9 in Q4 2025 — still negative, but the best level this year.

• It remains below the -6 recorded in Q4 2024 and below the long-term average of -1.

• The improvement signals stronger consumer sentiment, which is positive for retailers.

Retail Performance

• Retail sales grew 3.9% year-on-year across the first three quarters of 2025.

• Improved confidence suggests continued spending through the holiday season.

Durable Goods Boost

• The “time to buy durable goods” sub-index jumped from -20 to -14, the best reading since mid-2019.

• Lower interest rates and a stronger rand improved affordability for items like appliances, electronics, and vehicles.

Economic Outlook

• Economic outlook sub-index improved from -22 to -19.

• Household finances sub-index increased from 3 to 5.

Middle Class Drives the Turn

• Middle-income earners saw the largest confidence rebound, rising from -16 to -8.

• Low-income earners improved slightly (from -9 to -8).

• High-income confidence dipped from -11 to -12.

What’s Fueling the Improvement

FNB notes several positive economic shifts:

• Another 25 bps interest rate cut in November.

• Rand appreciation, reducing import prices.

• Petrol price dropped by 47c/litre between August and November.

• Food inflation slowed from 5.5% to 3.9%.

• Employment increased by 248,000 in Q3.

• South Africa received a sovereign credit rating upgrade and was removed from the FATF grey list.

Bottom Line

Improving consumer sentiment—particularly among the middle class—signals a stronger willingness to spend heading into the end of 2025, which may help cushion the expected slowdown in retail growth.

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