Petrol and Diesel Prices Set to Fall Next Week, But Don’t Celebrate Yet
South Africans are in line for a fuel price cut on Wednesday, 4 November. Month-end data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), combined with National Treasury’s tax relief, should turn what was expected to be a November hike into a cut at the pumps. The relief is real, but it is propped up by temporary government intervention, and global markets are still working against motorists.
Why a hike became a cut
CEF data for October still shows deep under-recoveries:
- Petrol 93: R1.01 per litre
- Petrol 95: R1.17 per litre
- Diesel (0.05%): R1.42 per litre
- Diesel (0.005%): R1.32 per litre
Normally, that points to increases, which was the expectation for most of the month. But in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, National Treasury announced a R10 billion relief package that cuts fuel taxes by R1.50 per litre on petrol and R3.00 per litre on diesel in November. At current recovery levels, that completely reverses the hike and delivers a cut. Diesel’s picture has deteriorated somewhat, but its much larger tax cut means relief is still all but assured.
Projected November prices (inland)
| |
Petrol 93 |
Petrol 95 |
Diesel 0.05% |
Diesel 0.005% |
| October price |
R29.88 |
R30.25 |
R31.95 |
R33.29 |
| Under-recovery |
R1.01 |
R1.17 |
R1.42 |
R1.32 |
| Fuel tax relief |
R1.50 |
R1.50 |
R3.00 |
R3.00 |
| Net change |
-R0.49 |
-R0.33 |
-R1.58 |
-R1.68 |
| November projection |
R29.39 |
R29.92 |
R30.37 |
R31.61 |
These projections don’t factor in the slate levy or other monthly adjustments. Official figures will be announced in the coming days, with changes taking effect on election day, 4 November.
The caveat: the slate levy
The slate levy rose to 87.6 cents per litre in October (up 4.4 cents) because of a cumulative negative slate balance of R10.456 billion at the end of August 2026. If that balance keeps climbing, the levy will rise again and eat into the relief.
Why markets aren’t on your side
The cuts depend entirely on government support, which is temporary and will be phased out by January 2027. Underneath it:
- Oil is above $111 a barrel. The energy crisis is still in full swing.
- Geopolitical risk: Prices rose this week on signs the US may resume military strikes on Iran, and after two separate tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Seasonal demand: The Northern Hemisphere is entering winter, when oil demand climbs.
- Russia-Ukraine: Attacks on energy infrastructure keep adding pressure.
- The rand: It has weakened to around R16.60/$ from the R16.20/$ region, as global uncertainty pushed investors into risk-off trades and gold prices dropped.
South Africa imports energy and fuel, so it feels all of this acutely. Markets are also waiting on the next round of economic data and the US decision on whether to keep South Africa in AGOA, expected next week ahead of the local government elections.
How far prices have come since the war began
| Month |
Petrol 95 |
Diesel 0.005% |
| March |
+R0.20 |
+R0.65 |
| April |
+R3.06 |
+R7.51 |
| May |
+R3.27 |
+R5.27 |
| June |
+R1.43 |
-R2.62 |
| July |
-R1.96 |
-R3.59 |
| August |
-R0.52 |
+R1.23 |
| September |
+R1.34 |
+R3.15 |
| October |
+R3.33 |
+R3.24 |
| Total to October |
+R10.15 |
+R14.84 |
| November (projected) |
-R0.33 |
-R1.68 |
| Total after November |
+R9.82 |
+R13.16 |
Petrol is still up by more than R9.80 a litre since the war began, and diesel by about R13.
What it means for you
- Motorists: A small but welcome cut next week, with petrol 95 down about 33 cents and diesel up to R1.68 cheaper.
- Businesses: Diesel users get the biggest relief, which matters for freight and transport costs.
- Planning ahead: With relief ending in January, don’t budget on today’s lower prices lasting. Watch the oil price, the rand and the slate levy.
The bottom line
Next week’s cut is good news, but it is a government-funded cushion rather than a market recovery. Prices are still far above where they were before the war, and the pressure from oil and the rand hasn’t gone away.
Source: Central Energy Fund month-end data and National Treasury MTBPS relief announcement, as reported in the original article.
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