South Africa heading for a Gas Shortage cliff
South Africa is facing a problem with its gas supply. Busi Mavuso, CEO of Business Leadership South Africa, predicts that the country may run out of gas in two years. This could cause serious issues for South Africa.
“Many industries rely on gas as an energy source, from glass making to beverages. The gas supply from Mozambique will no longer serve South African clients in 2026. This is because Sasol will be using all the gas for its own purposes.
“As with electricity, there have been warnings for some time that this was coming. Because of not taking action and not investing in new infrastructure, we are now likely to have a shortage of supplies.
Mavuso said South Africa can avoid crisis if government acts quickly and partners with businesses.
But even in the best-case scenario, the country will suffer at least a year-long gap in shortage of supply.
Developing new gas sources and infrastructure requires significant investment. Currently, there is a 12-18 month gap between the end of Sasol's supply and new supply becoming available. This gap needs to be addressed to ensure a continuous gas supply where it is needed.
Mavuso and Human both warned about the situation in South Africa regarding industrial gas usage. Human, from IGUA-SA, raised concerns last week about the issue.
Human also noted that the problem is not new, but has not received the necessary attention from the government. The result is that the impact of the crisis is now real – and South Africa effectively sits with a new ‘day-zero’ for gas.
Mavuso mentioned possible gas sources in Namibia, Mozambique, and off the Cape Coast. These could help lessen the upcoming gas shortage.
She said South Africa has not invested enough in infrastructure. This has made it difficult for supply sources to reach Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. These are the areas where most users are located.
Uncertainty about Petro SA's involvement as a customer has delayed discussions about developing Brulpadda and Luiperd. PetroSA's Mossgas refinery has remained idle for four years since it exhausted its last gas supply source.
TotalEnergies needs agreements with big buyers to invest in bringing resources to market. Even if it does, it will take until 2030 for the project to start supplying gas,” she said.
The business lead said that South Africa needs a massive coordination effort to deal with the coming drop.
People who want to use gas need to make deals with suppliers and logistics companies. This applies to both businesses and individuals. These deals are necessary to make the investment possible.
She said the government is important for licensing. The government creates the right conditions for licensing. This is done through agencies like the Petroleum Agency of South Africa and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy.
“By coordinating the right expertise, political will and focus on solutions, we can make progress. We cannot afford to waste another day.”
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